Bet This Plus-Money Prop and Over/Under (Wednesday August 17)

Orioles vs. Blue Jays Odds

Orioles Odds +143
Blue Jays Odds -170
More less 8.5 (-110/-110)
Time 3:07 p.m. ET
Odds via Caesars. Keep up to date MLB odds here.

With back-to-back wins to open this series for the Baltimore Orioles, Wednesday’s final comes with an added layer of intrigue.

If the young upstart Orioles complete the road sweep with a win on Wednesday, they would edge the Toronto Blue Jays for the last Wild Card spot in the American League.

Austin Voth will get the ball for the Orioles, hoping to improve on his 5.34 ERA in 60 1/3 innings, while Ross Stripling will return from IL for the Jays.

Toronto is once again seen as a relatively heavy favorite for the contest at -165, but could this be a risky game with Stripling leading in a soft bullpen? Let’s dive into the game.

Baltimore Orioles

You can sense the growing optimism and belief surrounding the Orioles’ talented young roster as this season progresses, and it’s seen with the stadium-wide results lately.

Baltimore has achieved a wRC+ of 108 in the past 30 days, with a wOBA of 0.321, and in the past 14 days the Orioles have improved those ratings by 116 and 0.332.

A notable part of the turnaround appears to be the presence of rookie Adley Rutschman both in the clubhouse and behind home plate, as well as displaying dominant numbers offensively.

Rutschman has now hit .526 against right-handed pitchers, with a .916 OPS throughout 205 at-bats, and could be a player to watch in a game against Ross Stripling.

Baltimore may need reasonable offensive production to stay in this contest, even if the Blue Jays seem to be battling themselves through a slump at the plate, as Voth has been far from good.

Voth has thrown a 6.08 ERA against opponents AL East since the start of last season, and a 5.26 ERA overall since the start of last year. He’s been in considerably better form lately, though, with a 2.46 ERA in his last five starts and a WHIP of just 1.09.

Voth’s stuff has about the same rating looking towards a 4.35 QOPA during this time though, and I’m hesitant to believe the turnaround will remain that big going forward.

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto’s offense has been far from top form since its weekend streak against the Guardians and opening two games in that streak, but looking to a broader sample, it looks like Wednesday could offer a good place for a better day against Voth.

The Blue Jays have been the fifth most productive team in the league this season against right-handed pitchers with a 114 wRC+ rating, and have a number of hitters who are expected to make tough outings on Wednesday.

Vladimir Guerrero saw his 19-game hitting streak snapped on Sunday but bounced back with homers in back-to-back games to start that streak.

Guerrero has hit .532 on breaking pitches this season, which is the ninth-best mark leaguewide, and will draw against Voth, who threw breaking stuff with a particularly high clip at 55%. .

Guerrero has put 129 balls in play at an exit speed of over 100 MPH against a right-handed pitcher since the start of last season, which is tops in the AL.

Stripling will make his first start since July 30 and is unlikely to pitch more than five innings, especially since that’s usually where the veteran finished before the injury. He had a solid 3.74 xERA throughout 82 and a third inning this season, led by one of the best changes in the league.

The Toronto bullpen seems to be in better shape lately with an ERA of 2.98 over the past 14 days, but an xFIP of 4.48 certainly suggests a regression is ahead, and the unit is not as greatly improved as it seems.

Orioles-blue jays

Toronto’s offense could be down to better results in this game given the talent available and a game against Voth, but I certainly don’t see any value in backing the Jays at this price given the modest pitching situation for the game.

Stripling has been far from elite this season, and there are certainly question marks with him returning from IL to this spot, before heading to an average bullpen.

Guerrero should be well positioned to continue a streak of dominating plays though, and I see the value in backing him to get over 1.5 bases at +105, as well as over 9 in what hopefully will be a contest. exciting.

Take: Vladimir Guerrero Over 1.5 Bases +105 (Play to -105), Over 9 +105 (Play to +100)